OMNIA Q&A: Is Demography Destiny?

For years, political analysts have predicted that America’s increasing racial and ethnic diversity would cement a permanent Democratic majority. The 2020 election, however, reminded Democratic candidates that they cannot take minority voters for granted.

For example, although president-elect Joe Biden received roughly twice as much Latino support as President Donald Trump, Michael Jones-Correa says both candidates benefited from record-high Latino voter turnout. Here, Jones-Correa—President’s Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for the Study of Ethnicity, Race, and Immigration—discusses the nuances of the Latino electorate.

This election showed that Latino voters are not a monolith. What makes the so-called “Latino vote” so complex?

Latinos are grouped together because they share a set of experiences and traditions and often a language, but they are just as diverse as other groups. The same gaps that influence all constituencies—education, gender, age—influence Latino voters.

We often note Latinos’ varied national origins, but generation is just as significant in driving political leanings. Many people were surprised that one-third of Latinos voted for Trump, given his anti-immigration rhetoric. But Latinos have very different experiences with immigration. If you are an immigrant or a first-generation American, then immigration policy will be a top concern. However, if your family has been in the U.S. for generations and you are removed from the immigration experience, you’re likely to prioritize other issues, like the economy.

South Florida and South Texas in particular saw substantial Latino support for the Republican Party. Why?

The common thread connecting these regions is that they were neglected by Democrats, who viewed them as “safe.” In South Florida, the media credits the Cuban American vote, because those who emigrated after Fidel Castro took power have more conservative views. But the area has grown much more diverse, with new immigrants coming from Colombia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, where they also experienced authoritarian or leftist regimes and therefore lean Republican. Democrats didn’t do enough outreach as that happened.

South Texas has mostly Mexican immigrants and their descendants, who traditionally vote Democratic. These are low-turnout districts, though, and Democrats got used to winning them without any effort. This made the area ripe for mobilization by the Trump campaign, which appealed to many Latinos’ socially conservative views. We also forget that half of Border Patrol agents and a quarter of ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] agents are Latino. These agencies provide job security and pensions for locals, so it’s not that surprising that they’ve swung toward the Republican Party.

The Democratic presidential candidate won in Georgia for the first time since 1992 and in Arizona for the first time since 1996. Did Latino voters contribute to these changes?

People don’t realize how big Georgia’s Latino population is—theAtlanta metropolitan area has almost a million Latinos. Grassroots voting rights movements, led by organizations like Stacey Abrams’ Fair Fight, empowered not just African Americans but also Latinos, whose turnout doubled in Georgia this year. Latinos became a more visible part of a critical Democratic coalition that also included African Americans, white suburban voters, and women. That coalition turned Georgia blue.

Arizona is another example of effective Latino engagement, but over a longer period of time. In 2010, Arizona implemented one of the nation's strictest anti-immigration laws, allowing police to racially profile Latinos and question their citizenship and immigration status. Since then, local pro-immigration organizations have been mobilizing Latinos to flip the state.

How can candidates better reach Latino voters?

Campaigns tend to target people who have already been mobilized. If you’ve voted before, you will get some attention—but if you’ve never voted, you remain invisible. Every year, about 300,000 Latinos become naturalized citizens, and half a million turn 18 and become eligible to vote. That’s 800,000 new potential Latino voters every year whom neither party is capturing.

Both parties should be appealing to these voters year-round. In places where we saw a big Latino turnout for Democrats, like Arizona and Georgia, various activist groups—not the Democratic Party itself—were building an infrastructure, and then Democratic campaigns were able to piggyback on that running up to the election. That’s a lesson for everyone.

Many pundits maintain that “demography is destiny,” and the Democratic Party will benefit as the nation diversifies. Do you agree?

Latinos nationwide do vote for Democrats in larger numbers than they do for Republicans, but believing that any group is a natural constituency for either party is a mistake. Democrats lost some Latino voters because they were not paying enough attention to them, yet Republicans haven’t really won their votes consistently, either, because they also haven’t paid enough attention. In key states, Latino support remains up for grabs.